Anti-Doping

A Bayesian approach to boost individual anti-doping classification accuracy by transverse monitoring of the athlete network

Purpose: To demonstrate a Bayesian approach utilizing the athlete network to boost the positive predictive value of individual doping classifications. Study Design and Methods:  Five data-sets of 10,000 individuals and their networks were simulated and statistically analyzed in R. Background prevalence (BP) of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50% was chosen to cover the range …

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GoldenR Cheetah Script For Interval Discovery

The Golden Cheetah crew has now integrated R into Golden Cheetah in the latest development build. This update instantly gave Golden Cheetah statistical and modelling super-powers to the point where I gave it the nickname GoldenR Cheetah. As an example, this script uses the change point package to auto discover intervals within a power file. …

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Estimating the Probability of Doping as a Function of Power

A repeating theme heard in performance analysis discussions is that “Performance doesn’t prove doping.” Of course this is true because proof, as an absolute, doesn’t really exist. Instead, most real-world evidence driven judgments are based on probability and not “proof.” From this perspective, this post will illustrate the concept of using a mathematical model to …

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Athlete Biological Passport For Level Change Detection

One of the weaknesses of the current Athlete Biological Passport software seems to be an over-emphasis on outlier detection versus level change detection. To illustrate this point consider the Lance Armstrong case:   According to the UCI, Armstrongs blood data never triggered a flag on the software. The software screen was non-positive despite the obvious …

Power Estimate Modelling

Comparing Performances Across Grand Tours

One of the fun parts about modelling climbing performances in Grand Tours is the ability to make historical and virtual head to head comparisons. In the figure above the grey dots are the average performance of the top 3 finishers from each Grand Tour for each finishing climb from 2008 – 2013. Overlayed on this …

Anti-Doping

The Imminent Arrival of Reward Side Anti-Doping

For longer than I’d like to admit, I have been advising on Clean Protocol based out of Australia. I say longer than I’d like to admit because it has taken so damn long to get to the point were meaningful forward progress has finally started. In anticipation of finalizing some key pieces of technology I wanted …