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Estimating the Probability of Doping as a Function of Power

A repeating theme heard in performance analysis discussions is that “Performance doesn’t prove doping.” Of course this is true because proof, as an absolute, doesn’t really exist. Instead, most real-world evidence driven judgments are based on probability and not “proof.” From this perspective, this post will illustrate the concept of using a mathematical model to …

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Athlete Biological Passport For Level Change Detection

One of the weaknesses of the current Athlete Biological Passport software seems to be an over-emphasis on outlier detection versus level change detection. To illustrate this point consider the Lance Armstrong case:   According to the UCI, Armstrongs blood data never triggered a flag on the software. The software screen was non-positive despite the obvious …

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2014 Giro d’Italia Climb Preview

The upcoming 2014 Giro d’Italia features 6 that are likely to play a role in shaping the final podium. As with previous Grand Tours, @ammattipyoraily is my go to source for the most consistent data. The process is simple: 1. Measure the climbs. 2. Time the finishing climbs. 3. Estimate normalized W/kg power outputs using …